Finance Dailies
Your daily financial briefing from Charge Wealth
TLDR
- Gold $5,100 - Fear is expensive right now
- Trump Accounts - Employers now matching up to $1,000
- Nat gas $6 - Winter is here, literally
- Fed + Big Tech - The week that could move everything
- Bull market year 4 - History says it gets harder from here
5 min read
Good Morning
Markets are jittery, gold is flying, and this week could set the tone for Q1. We're breaking down the gold surge, a new savings vehicle getting employer backing, and what to watch as Big Tech reports and the Fed speaks. Let's get into it.
Gold Hits $5,100 - What's Driving It?
Gold just hit another all-time high, climbing past $5,100 for the first time in history. That's a 47% gain over the past 12 months - the kind of move we haven't seen since the pandemic flight-to-safety in 2020.
So what's behind it?
- Geopolitical tension - Greenland sovereignty disputes, Venezuela instability, and ongoing Middle East uncertainty have investors looking for places to park capital outside of traditional risk assets.
- Fiscal concerns - Growing government debt levels and spending trajectories are raising questions about long-term currency stability. Gold has historically been viewed as a hedge against fiscal uncertainty.
- Safe haven flows - Institutional money is rotating into hard assets. Central banks globally have been net buyers of gold for several consecutive quarters.
Context: Gold doesn't produce income or compound like equities. It sits there. Its value comes from scarcity and perception - when fear rises, so does demand. Some investors hold 5-10% in commodities as a portfolio hedge to smooth volatility during downturns. Others prefer to stay fully allocated to productive assets. Neither approach is inherently right - it depends on your risk tolerance and time horizon.
The question isn't whether gold is "good" or "bad." It's whether your portfolio reflects your actual comfort level with uncertainty.
Trump Accounts Are Getting Employer Backing
When "Trump Accounts" were announced last year, the reception was mixed. A new tax-advantaged savings vehicle sounded promising, but without employer adoption, participation was limited.
That's changing fast.
Major employers are now rolling out matching programs - some offering up to $1,000 in matching contributions for employees who participate. This follows the same logic as 401(k) matching: employers use it as a retention and benefits tool, and employees who participate capture what is effectively additional compensation.
The accounts themselves function as a hybrid savings vehicle with tax advantages on both contributions and qualified withdrawals. The specific benefits depend on income level and how the funds are eventually used.
Why this matters: Employer matching programs historically see low participation rates in early rollouts - often because employees simply don't know they exist. If your workplace has adopted Trump Accounts with matching, understanding the terms could be worthwhile. If you're unsure whether your employer offers this, HR would be the place to ask.
Early adopters of 401(k) matching captured decades of compounding that later participants missed. New programs often follow similar patterns.
The Fed Meets This Week
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee meets Wednesday and Thursday, with the rate decision and statement released Thursday afternoon. This is the first meeting of 2026, and markets are paying close attention.
Here's what to watch:
- Rate decision - Consensus expects rates to hold steady. The Fed has been in "wait and see" mode, and nothing in recent data suggests an urgent need to move. The decision itself likely won't surprise anyone.
- Statement language - This is where it gets interesting. The Fed communicates through carefully chosen words. Phrases like "data dependent" and "ongoing progress" signal patience. Any shift toward more hawkish language - concerns about inflation persistence or economic overheating - could move markets.
- Press conference tone - Powell's Q&A often reveals more than the written statement. Watch for questions about the 2026 rate path and how he frames the balance between inflation and employment.
Markets are currently pricing in two rate cuts this year, likely in the back half. If the Fed sounds more cautious than expected, those expectations could shift - and with them, bond yields, equity valuations, and sector rotations.
The Fed doesn't like to surprise markets. But markets don't always hear what the Fed is actually saying.
Big Tech Earnings - The Week's Main Event
Apple, Meta, and Microsoft all report earnings this week. Together, these three companies represent a massive portion of the S&P 500's market cap. When they move, the index moves.
Apple (Wednesday after close)
The focus will be on iPhone demand heading into 2026, services revenue growth (which carries higher margins than hardware), and any updates on AI feature adoption. Apple has been quieter than competitors on the AI front - investors want to know if that's strategic patience or falling behind.
Meta (Wednesday after close)
Ad revenue remains the engine. The question is whether the efficiency gains from AI-driven ad targeting are translating to revenue growth or just margin improvement. Reality Labs continues to burn cash - any signals on spending discipline there will matter. And Threads/Instagram engagement metrics will show whether Meta is holding ground against TikTok.
Microsoft (Thursday after close)
Azure cloud growth is the headline number. Investors want to see AI workloads translating into actual revenue, not just pilot programs. Enterprise spending trends will also signal broader economic health - when companies cut IT budgets, Microsoft feels it early.
Why this matters: These aren't just three stocks. They're bellwethers. Strong beats with positive guidance could extend the current rally. Misses or cautious outlooks could trigger a broader reassessment of valuations across the tech sector.
If you hold individual positions in any of these names, knowing the reporting schedule helps avoid surprises. Earnings moves can be sharp in either direction.
Bull Market Enters Year 4
The current bull market is now entering its fourth year. Since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 has gained significantly, driven by a combination of post-pandemic recovery, AI enthusiasm, and resilient corporate earnings.
Historically, year 4 of bull markets tends to be more challenging:
- Early gains often come easy - Recovery rallies and multiple expansion (investors willing to pay more for the same earnings) do the heavy lifting in years 1-2.
- Later stages require earnings growth - By year 4, valuations have typically expanded. Further gains need actual profit growth to justify them, not just sentiment improvement.
- Concentration risk builds - The current rally has been heavily driven by a handful of mega-cap tech stocks. That concentration means index-level returns depend heavily on a small number of names continuing to perform.
None of this means the bull market is over. Bull markets can last 5, 7, even 10+ years. But the character of returns often shifts. The easy money tends to come early. Later stages reward patience and discipline more than momentum chasing.
This isn't a prediction - just historical context. Markets don't follow scripts. But understanding where we are in the cycle can help frame expectations.
Things Worth Knowing
- Trump Account matching - Check if your employer offers it. Early participation in matched savings programs has historically been advantageous.
- IRA contribution deadlines - Contributions for the 2025 tax year can still be made until April 15, 2026. This applies to both Traditional and Roth IRAs.
- Tax document organization - 1099s and W-2s are arriving throughout January and February. Gathering them early makes filing (or handing off to a preparer) smoother.
- Earnings calendar awareness - If you hold individual stocks, knowing when they report helps avoid unexpected volatility. Apple, Meta, and Microsoft this week are the big ones.
Charge Wealth